tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-67898530488899962882024-03-14T10:24:09.618+13:00Global Dialog 1FREE THINKING WORLD AFFAIRSUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger272125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-65950363109304002922012-04-06T01:34:00.016+12:002012-04-06T19:43:32.164+12:00Mali: Timbuktu falls to the AzawadisAnd a ceasefire is declared on the grounds that Tuareg-led rebels have captured enough land to create a state.<br />
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<b>A</b>ll three of Mali's major north-eastern cities have now fallen to the <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/mali-could-azawad-secede.html">MNLA</a>: Kidal, Gao and now the largest, Timbuktu. The nomadic Tuareg have triumphed and declared a ceasefire, although their Islamist co-protagonists have refused to lay down arms. ECOWAS forces are poised to intervene yet France's Foreign Minister believes there's no military solution and that only diplomacy will solve the issue. But after a century of attempting to kick out the "colonisers", as the Tuareg seem to see the established powers, talk is unlikely to roll back the forces of history.<br />
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The Tuareg are a nomadic people, remarkably homogenous and culturally similar yet inhabiting parts of five West African countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Libya and Niger. The latter has uranium, while the former huge oil reserves.<br />
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Any suggestion that the Azawadis can't form a viable independent sovereign country would be ludicrous, should the rebel military succeed in every one of these states just as they have in Mali.<br />
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We might be witnessing the beginnings of a protracted multinational conflict with the possibility of the emergence of a brand new UN Member. Colonialism drew these boundaries and, fifty years after the departure of the Europeans, the map of the Sahara is set to change.<br />
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The blue men of the desert are destined to enter the global stage.<br />
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Aid angencies have expressed fears that turmoil in the north and east is compounding an already precarious situation in rump Mali in the aftermath of the recent military coup in Bamako, the nation's capital. Agency workers have fled, exposing vulnerable women and children to starvation. Does another humanitarian disaster loom? Chaos frequency ensues in the aftermath of war or in the wake of political uncertainty. As Sudan's experience demonstrates, redesigning Africa's map is a messy, costly and dangerous business. But South Sudanese independence celebrations equally proved that the local populace is typically ecstatic at the prospect of release from tyrannical oppression. The International Community will undoubtedly fret at Mali's present predicament. But carving out the territory of a modern Tuareg state from the scrub and dunes might ultimately bring prosperity to a marginalised people.<br />
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Tuareg numbers amount to:<br />
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1.79m in Niger (or around 9.3% of Niger's total)<br />
1.45m in Mali (or around 10.0% of Mali's total)<br />
0.85m in Algeria<br />
0.62m in Libya<br />
0.33m in Burkina Faso.<br />
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And some 5.7 million in all: a population roughly equivalent to that of Denmark or Nicaragua. If any weight is awarded to the concept of self-determination then should these hardy nomadic Saharan people have the right to decide their own fate?<br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Sources: <i>AP</i>, <i>BBC</i>, <i>Vancouver Sun, Wikipedia, World Factbook</i>.</b><br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Check out all commentaries <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html" style="color: #ccab33; text-decoration: none;" wrc_done="true">here. </a> </b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-9004244685261421692012-03-08T21:17:00.008+13:002012-03-09T06:02:14.592+13:00Syria: Could the country break-up?<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Deputy oil minister Abdo Hussameddin's defection to the Opposition might start a wider split.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><b>T</b>he 58-year old deputy oil and minerals minister announced his resignation from the Ba'ath party and the government on YouTube, citing the brutality of the Assad regime as justification, according to the <i>BBC</i>. His departure, the first by a senior government figure, could trigger a flood of resignations from others disgusted by the clamp-down in Homs and other Syrian cities and the torture, rapes and murderous acts of the Syrian military. A civil war looms, as outside intervention is thwarted by the international community's inability to coalesce (after Russia and China vetoed UN-sanctioned action) and the Arab League's incapability to devise and implement a regional plan to halt spiraling violence.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Syria's very existence as a single sovereign state is under threat. A</span></span><span style="color: #333333; line-height: 18px;">ccording to expert diplomatic advice from the departed UK Ambassador, t</span><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">he existing Alawite minority government is doomed. The sizeable Christian community offers tacit support to Bashar al-Assad's regime, faced as they are by the prospect of its replacement by a hardline Muslim Brotherhood administration. In the North, the marginalised population of Kurds must be hoping for a national break-up so aspirations of a separate Kurdish state can be realised. In the South around the Golan Heights, the Druze have begun turning against Assad (veteran Lebanese Druze politician Walid Jumblatt already calling for the Syrian Opposition to be armed). Syria's very composition appears precarious.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">In his <i>ArabSaga</i> blog, F. Najia quotes George Solage envisaging a three-way split in Syria - with the Shia Alawites retreating to their Mediterranean coastal heartland above Lebanon, the Kurds claiming a statelet close to the Turkish border and the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood holding sway in the bulk lands in Syria's central, eastern and southern regions.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">The <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/08/turkey-thwarting-kurdistan.html">Turks would baulk at such a Kurdish strategy </a>as it would give impetus to the rise of a combined Kurdistan involving their own sizeable Kurdish community and the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. Ankara would also be concerned about the position of Turkey's own Alawite population, should an Alawite state re-emerge north of Beirut.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">The Israelis and Americans, the Saudis and the Jordanians, would all be concerned at the existence of a Damascus dominated by an extremist Sunni regime dominated by Syria's hard-line version of the Brotherhood. </span></span><span style="color: #333333; line-height: 18px;">And the ten percent of Syrians who follow Christianity would fear for their survival under such a government.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">International action to offset a bloodbath appears impossible - it's US election year and the West is tired of global intervention. The Middle East, possibly the most volatile region on the planet, seems destined to descend into geopolitical mayhem. and this just as Iran's nuclear ambitions threatens to entice a violent and probably fruitless Israeli response.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">In their quieter and more contemplative moments, members of the Turkish government might well be discussing how much calmer things were to their south when the Ottomans held sway. If there's nothing the Americans, Israelis, Saudis, Qataris or other interested parties can do to prevent Syria from falling into prolonged civil war, and the Turks are reluctant to be dragged into a Vietnam-style quagmire, a drawn-out battle for the redesigning of the map of Syria looks to be on the cards. </span></span><br />
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<b style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html" style="color: #009933;">here.</a></span></b> <br />
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<ol><li>New Zealand</li>
<li>United States</li>
<li>United Kingdom</li>
<li>Russia</li>
<li>Malaysia</li>
<li>Australia</li>
<li>Belgium</li>
<li>Germany</li>
<li>Singapore</li>
<li>South Africa.</li>
</ol><div>Thank you for checking in, and to those who've delivered welcome, insightful and often informed comments. </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-62843730049865069522012-02-14T18:44:00.006+13:002012-02-15T01:42:41.631+13:00Falklands: Is Penn mightier than the sword?Or has the ink run dry in the actor's argument?<br />
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<b>H</b>ow to court celebrity and potentially inflame an already heated debate simultaneously: American actor Sean Penn claims in Buenos Aires that the UK is guilty of "colonialism" over the "Malvinas", according to the <i>BBC</i>. Penn was meeting Argentine president Cristina Kirchner at the time.<br />
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So, what does Sean Penn think of the American occupation of Hawaii, Guam or Puerto Rico, I wonder?<br />
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And, in any event, the squabble over the Falkland Islands stems from a dispute between Spanish and British colonists. Not between British imperialists and some distant indigenous people, for the Falklands or Malvinas were uninhabited when Europeans first landed. Later, the Spaniards passed their claim over to the now defunct United Provinces of the River Plate, which included modern Uruguay.<br />
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The Falkland Islands should remain British for as long as the local population wants it. And that, no doubt, will be forever.<br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 18px;">Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html" style="color: #009933;">here.</a></b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-76324512948668007462012-01-30T06:53:00.004+13:002012-01-30T20:51:52.390+13:00World: Has the UN something to say to Sentamu?Archbishop of York is one step too far behind the times.<br />
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<b>A</b>s UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon implores African nations to do more to promote homosexual equality on a continent famed for homophobic legislation, I suggest Archbishop of York John Sentamu takes note. Sentamu uttered the retrogressive statement recently that same-sex marriage shouldn't be legalised as a man should only wed a woman. Concerned about the drift of black Anglicans towards pentecostal churches, Sentamu appears to pander to discriminatory attitudes. He stressed that civil parterships were supported by the Church of England on the grounds that his faith believes friendships should be encouraged. No mention of love, fidelity or consummation. That would undoubtedly disgust the bigoted amongst the faithful.<br />
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The Church of England would be advised to embrace modern thinking if it is to survive. Traditionalists will support more backward-looking religions. Anglicans ought to concentrate their diminishing fire-power on environmental polluters, social evils, political mis-steps and drifts towards military conflict. And they should listen to the wisdom of the United Nations top brass when it comes to the rights of men and women who pursue independent or off-beat lifestyles.<br />
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Sentamu is right to refer to and scorn the racist attitudes which in the past often permeated the Anglican church, but he is wrong to distance himself from homosexual law reform at a time of global social renewal.<br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 18px;">Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html" style="color: #009933;">here.</a></b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-34831463647290320272011-12-31T23:29:00.002+13:002012-01-01T05:10:58.546+13:00Britain: No time for complacencyBut the time for renewal.<br />
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<strong>I </strong>emerged at Heathrow's crowded T3 before Christmas off a flight from the Far East. London is mild this year, with one of the warmest winters since records started. The atmosphere here is cheery and resigned. Life progresses for most much as usual. But there's fear that austerity measures will begin to bite hard in the New Year: the people are braced for the worst. Uplifting celebrations of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympic Games will show the UK in positive light and distract the locals from personal traumas. <br />
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There's an entire generation of poor governance and red-tape to unravel. And by best guestimates the country won't emerge from its debt hole for five or so years. But the prospects are dazzling: shedding the Euro-shackles at last, broadening the economy away from over-dependence on banking to embrace modern tech industry and traditional manufacturing, developing renewed relationships with former trade partners, and presenting a distinct voice in global politics.<br />
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Renewal is in prospect. And if any country has a proven track record in that it's the UK. Happy New Year.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-72651455512687973742011-12-11T10:59:00.014+13:002012-06-13T08:34:14.357+12:00Britain: What price freedom?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As "splendid isolation" re-appears, could not the UK simply focus on profitable trading relationships elsewhere?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>S</b>o much is being written about David Cameron's veto of a proposed new European treaty, that it seems there's little to add to the debate. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Europhile and Europhobe camps in and outside the media busily enthuse about the pros and cons of the British coalition government's position to defend UK interests at all costs. Even the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats, the generally respected Simon Hughes, confirmed that the government's stance was agreed prior to PM David Cameron's departure for Brussels. Maybe he understands British sentiment better than his leader, Nick Clegg, the DPM, who asserted that the use of the veto would likely result in a reduction in British influence across the Channel. George Osborne, the Chancellor, maintained there's no chance of the UK "exiting the European Union" reported the <i>BBC</i>. And that despite a <i>Telegraph</i> report of the concern expressed by Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt that "Britain is <span class="st">starting to drift away from Europe." Perhaps Sweden feels strong enough to conclude that a drift away by Sweden wouldn't necessarily harm Swedish interests, any more than those of the UK, as Sweden emerges as Britain's only supporter in Brussels.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st">All this centres on whether the European project, and in particular the single currency, is assisting member states other than Germany and France, and perhaps a few others. The Periphery is now in dire need of bail-outs and long-term help to prevent localised disasters, but for Britain at least almost the entire period of membership has cost in financial, sovereignty and social terms. Despite the vehemently-held view of Tory grandee Michael Heseltine and others that the European Union has greatly benefited Britain.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st">Freedom has no monetary value. Democracy and the people's will should always prevail. And right now, despite denials from the diminishing group of British Euro-enthusiasts, popular UK opinion supports withdrawal. Maybe Heseltine will be</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st"> proved correct, and local jobs will be lost. Social upheaval could ensue as the unemployed and disenchanted parade their frustrations, strike and disrupt. But, in the end, Britain's position would be inevitably enhanced as it freed itself to explore the world at large, unencumbered by EU shackles, bureauracy and constraints.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st">Britain's trade with non-EU countries has been consistently profitable. By contrast however, the UK has a severely damaging trade imbalance with its European counterparties. Importantly too, European citizens, at present at liberty to flow unfettered into Britain, would discover their right to work and reside withdrawn. At last the domestic population would begin to pick up work where jobs had previously gone to cheaper foreign workers.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st">There is no time like the present to press this government relentlessly for a referendum on membership. If indeed British membership is not withdrawn by the Europeans themselves. They can carry on progressing along their chosen path, but that route is not one I would wish the UK to follow. Splendid isolation, a European foreign policy honed in the latter part of the nineteenth century, could yet again be championed by those who wish Europe well, but not at the expense of the United Kingdom. For too long that expense has been too high a price to pay. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="st"><br />
</span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div><span class="st"><br />
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</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-34764686650186367102011-12-11T08:59:00.006+13:002012-06-13T05:01:28.235+12:00Russia: Is political evolution possible?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In a state where the traditional media is constrained and one party dominates.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>P</b>rotestors pouring onto the streets of towns and cities across all nine Russian time zones are "calling not for revolution, but for political evolution" maintains Neave Barker of <i>Al Jazeera</i>. The hundreds who have been arrested appear to be being replaced by fellow supporters all maintaining that recent elections were flawed. Among those detained is 35-year old blogger and political </span>activist Alexei Navalny, who coined the phrase "party of swindlers and thieves" to describe United Russia.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Even ex-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has said that elections should be re-run due to fraud, according to <i>The Australian</i>. And he is a man who appreciates the clout of those at present in power in the Kremlin. Recall the August 1991 putsch to oust Gorbachev. Recently, the former leader told the <i>BBC</i> "Putin and his team are for stability but stability kills development and results in stagnation." However, the domestic audience may well ignore these warnings, as Gorbachev remains far more popular outside Russia than within it, supposedly.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">An analysis conducted in spring 2011 by Pew Global Attitudes and relayed in <i>The Economist</i> points out that 57% to 32% of Russians polled prefer strong leadership to democracy. This is surely a nation which has never tasted unfettered democracy in action. So, what chances of success have these protestors, many emanating from the intellectual or professional sections of Russian society? </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">If Pew's findings are right that around 70% of Russians think that changes since 1991 have failed to help ordinary people and yet the present regime has enhanced Russians' pride in their country, it might take something more than evolution to persuade the average Russian to switch allegience away from the current system. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pew's research was conducted earlier this year, prior to the demise of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi. And before Vladimir Putin was reportedly booed when at a Moscow martial arts fight last month, before he anounced his intended 2012 presidential bid, or before United Russia lost 77 parliamentary seats in much criticised elections. The party's losses raise concerns about Putin's personal electoral chances, despite an alleged 60% of female voters over the age of 40 supporting Russia's hitherto most popular politician. Nevertheless, United Russia remains the largest party in spite of losing its two-thirds parliamentary majority.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Street protest placards demand a Russia without Putin. 100,000 are claimed by organisers to have assembled on an island close to the Kremlin to demand fresh elections, according to the<i> BBC</i>. However, realistically, how do protesters wrestle power from this vast country's latest formidable tsar when c. 75% of Russians believe freedom from state interference is unimportant. It has to be recognised that this is a country where state interference has always held sway. How could people have experience of any other way? Protestors may well clamour for evolution, yet that's a relatively novel process as Gorbachev's Glasnost openness programme was initiated only thirty years ago. Perhaps that accounts for all those mature females who veer towards strong leadership under Putin.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>The Economist </i>called on Putin to "clean up the Kremlin and reform the economy" both for his own and for his country's sake. Although will Putin get the chance to do so? If protests escalate, in spite of more incarcerations, he may not get that opportunity. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It has to be said in these most uncertain times that political turmoil in Russia, an increasingly important economy, won't calm financial markets or avert global social upheaval. Putin is a great survivor and a charismatic poltician, could he transform his fortunes? </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Social media enabled messages and images to stoke dissent from Tunis to Damascus. The jeering subjected to by Putin at that Moscow fight was viewed by many on YouTube, a medium from which he's benefitted when singing or speaking to acclaim in happier times. And could recent images of Russian street revolt stoke greater dissent? Or will these protests wither as the realities of the daily grind dawn on those young professionals as they place career futures in dire jeapody?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Some 60% of ordinary Russians surveyed by Pew said standards of living had declined since 1991. That's a figure which should worry the Kremlin, surely? For if average folks' living standards are genuinely dropping, there's a chance they could join those youthful protestors in demanding structural change.</span></span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-56135997966353660342011-12-06T17:36:00.014+13:002011-12-11T07:09:02.272+13:00Out of this World: Earth-twin discovered<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">With the catchy name Kepler 22-b. Could we migrate there?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Y</b>ou'd think they'd have called it something more memorable, like Kirk or Darwin for example. But Kepler 22-b circumnavigates a sun much like ours, basks in a pleasant 22</span>°C<span style="font-size: small;"> and could sustain life if researchers determine that it holds water. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Mostly rock, it might at first be inhospitable - yet humans inhabit the Canary isle of Lanzarote and the Rock of Gibraltar, after all. Only problem appears to be its proximity to us, or lack of. At 600 light years it'd take a mere six hundred years to get to if travelling at the speed of light. </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Six centuries is like from the Teutonic knights / England's King Henry IV era until Facebook, Baidu and the iPhone4S. Even if we learn how to fly quicker, say 600 times, it would still take a year to reach. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Migrants could venture that far if they were particularly patient, but clearly vacationers wouldn't. And it might take us a century to discover how to travel that fast, or anything approaching it. Some Italian scientists already suspect that surpassing the speed-of-light is plausible, although their findings have been questioned by a rival scientific team from the same Italian laboratory.<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Seems rather pointless being aware of this world at all, really. Except to know that if one of these planets does indeed exist, there could well be others.</span></span></div><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Spin our globe and check out the <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">Index here. </a></b></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-11711311942979310962011-12-04T18:52:00.015+13:002011-12-12T07:21:49.090+13:00France: Le Pen calls it right on the Euro<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As Sarkozy snuggles into German arms and plans fiscal and ultimate political union.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>E</b>urosceptics have prospered from the muddling through. They've gained support from each recent much-heralded yet fruitless European meeting, each of which has at first calmed and then fueled investor angst. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">And none more so than Marie Le Pen of the National Front in France. Before French president Nicolas Sarkozy joins German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Brussels next week, Le Pen stridently asserts that France should pursue an organised and dignified exit from the failing single currency, before the Euro collapses causing maximum mayhem.</span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">She can't be so very wrong when one of the Euro's chief architects, former European Commission President Jaques Delors, told the <i>Telegraph</i> that the Euro was always vulnerable unless "common economic policies“ founded on the co-operation of the member states”" were not (contrary to his stern advice) enshined from the outset.</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;">Respecting the French rejection of the European constitution in a 2005 referendum, she promotes her 2012 Élysée bid by reminding voters that European Monetary Union has "asphyxiated our economies, killed our industries and choked our jobs” as the<i> Financial Times </i>reported. She couldn't be more correct, as it happens. Suspicions of the NF's ultimate aims aside, her honed presentational skills win plaudits and her points ring home. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Sarkozy's Socialist challenger, <span class="st">Francois Hollande, will have his work cut out to counter Le Pen's claims. And Sarkozy could likely, by the the time of the April vote, be either floored by the Euro's collapse, or having to explain away his hand in its demise. Hollande ruled out treaty changes to deal with the ongoing Euro crisis. Yet that's precisely what's required (much to UK PM David Cameron's irritation, for he's conceded that such changes will trigger a British referendum which might hamper European efforts to solve the Continent's debt and credit problems and hold back UK growth).</span> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Le Pen is calling the right card at the right time for Right reasons. It's a shame that France might be the first significant European country to entrust over-arching power to an untested and potentially divisive far-right politician.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The Euro project might yet produce far-reaching, long-lasting and undoubtedly dire political consequences to accompany dreadfully damaging economic ones.</span></span><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-57910453370755178652011-12-03T08:57:00.023+13:002011-12-05T05:33:35.002+13:00World Property: Could house prices tumble soon?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Can Merkel's moves improve Obama's re-election chances and prevent a property meltdown?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><br />
</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>H</b>igh household-debt levels and adverse property price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in several rich countries could lead to a further steep <b>decline in house values</b>, claimed <i>The Economist</i> last week.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Central bankers come to the rescue</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The announcement that the US, UK, European, Japanese, Canadian and Swiss central banks intend to work together to "ease liquidity conditions in financial markets", as <i>The Economist</i> described it, to reduce the rising threat of a credit crunch particularly in the Eurozone, can only be seen as an attempt by the Americans in particular to off-set the chances of a global recession during an election year. Could Barack Obama survive amidst the second half of a double-dip recession? </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>And at last, so does German Chancellor Angela Merkel </b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Since the central banks' press statement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have announced that Germany and France will devise a route towards fiscal union. A Eurozone leaders meeting is due to take place in Brussels next week to hammer out a plan to create a two-speed Europe with France and Germany at the core embracing fiscal unity and the periphery on the edge. It's a bit unclear to me how this might work in practice. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>But does Merkel have a cunning plan? </b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Fine for Britain, Denmark and those countries which never adopted the Euro. But for Italy, Spain and Greece which did, how could they stick with the single currency when not inside Sarkozy's "zone of stability" yet subjected to "severe sanctions" when failing to meet their "responsibilities" as the <i>BBC </i>called it?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As France faces credit downgrades from key ratings agencies and Germany enters recession, the notion that they constitute a "zone of stability" appears fanciful.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And how could it work exactly? Merkel emphasised that the "German constitution does not permit devolving budget control to a European institution" yet she's proposing "fiscal union" across the Eurozone. These two things seem contradictory. Unless, that is, she plans to relocate to Frankfurt budgetary control of all European states.<a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/britain-inexorable-rise-of-ukip.html"> <b>UKIP</b></a> leader Nigel Farage reminded members of the European parliament recently that the European Union was set up after WWII to avert the dire prospect of German domination of Europe, yet it looks now that that is precisely what Europe will endure. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Britain's in a precarious place though </b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Britain's PM, David Cameron, shot off to Paris to meet Sarkozy. Another Eurozone recession would harm the UK as it struggles to recover while rapidly reducing a debt mountain. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Brits are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They need to repatriate powers from Brussels to unravel damaging regulations and prevent Europe from enforcing fresh ones, yet they are prevented from taking action which might further hurt the Eurozone.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Cameron is hamstrung by the 2010 coalition agreement with the pro-European Liberal Democrats. But the more he dithers, the more he will face vociferous criticism and growing opposition from Eurosceptics both in his own Conservative party and from UKIP. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequor, has detailed plans in his Autumn Statement to do everything possible to encourage growth and prevent recession. He will have his work cut out, especially as the precarious state of the UK economy has been hammered lately by public sector workers striking over austerity measures and pension changes.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>However, are the Europeans moving fast enough to avert a house price collapse?</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The speed Merkel, Sarkozy, the European Central Bank and the European Commission have moved to date to thwart the impending Eurozone crisis has sent equity and bond markets into tailspin. Things move tortuously slowly in European democracies (Belgium is STILL without an elected government some eighteen months after having voted!) and this has done little to alleviate investor or credit ratings agency angst. German sloth might have been induced by their own domestic business sentiment remaining stubbornly bullish. Until very recently, that is. Perhaps that's why Merkel can now act, maybe the Germans are finally being squeezed by the crisis. Thank goodness they've at last got the message.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And maybe Germany will finally get its way when neighbouring Europeans fall sheepishly into line. </span><span style="font-size: small;">The prospects for the sovereign rights of individual European nations look worse today than at any time since 1945, however. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">But the slow speed in which this could evolve leads me to suspect that a credit-induced recession will not be averted and that residential property values will suffer sharp declines.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>So, which countries are at risk of a bursting housing bubble?</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Britain is a key constituent of that rich country list, The Brits and others are highly exposed to a popping of the property bubble. More in danger still (in order of vulnerability) are Belgium, Canada, France and Australia, calculates<i> The Economist</i>. Hot on the heels of those four come New Zealand, Sweden, Spain, Netherlands and then Britain. Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Switzerland, the US, Germany and Japan are listed in declining order of risk. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>And has recent action helped? </b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central bankers might have staved off the chances of credit being squeezed again but, as <i>The Economist</i> noted, the "most significant near-term threat to the global economy—the problems of debt and contagion in the euro zone—continues to grow." </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">If Merkel moves slothfully towards a resolution</span><span style="font-size: small;">—</span><span style="font-size: small;">as she is wont to do</span><span style="font-size: small;">—</span><span style="font-size: small;">this threat will simply grow. And simultaneously Obama's re-election prospects can only get grimmer.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b><br />
</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-3463867981063166602011-11-30T08:24:00.103+13:002011-12-05T05:13:50.006+13:00New Zealand: Someone has to lead the Opposition<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pick someone who can enthuse the million New Zealanders who didn't vote.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>P</b>hil Goff has resigned as Leader of the Labour Party following an historic defeat. Even many of their staunchest supporters appear to have deserted Labour, which garnered less votes than at any time for 85 years. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The national turnout percentage dived to a 120 year low as a million failed to vote.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Numerous disengaged Chinese, Korean and other migrants failed to fully comprehend the complex and confusing voting system, appreciate the merits or otherwise of a poorly promoted array of candidates and seemingly felt so disenchanted that many simply stayed at home. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Equally importantly, atypically Labour-supporting and socially-conscious inner-city residents seem to be either opting for the Greens, National, a minor party or abstaining. And the youth, often a good source of support for Labour, appears bored by the process with a large percentage failing even to register.</span><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And in deepest, brownest areas enthusiasm for Labour had plummeted. Perhaps the socially-embracing message failed to get through. Perhaps voters foresaw a National landslide and decided the result was a foregone conclusion. Whatever the reason, Goff and colleagues made little impact, despite a vigorous and well-argued campaign.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The combination of these, and other factors meant that Labour's showing was possibly its worst yet. There's a very steep incline to climb indeed</span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Now the Leader has tendered in his resignation. Annette King, Goff's deputy, also announced her intention to stand down. Various hopefuls have thrown hats into the ring:</span></div><ul style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><li><span style="font-size: small;">David Parker, a 51-year old List MP, and former Attorney General</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">David Cunliffe, the 48-year old MP for the Auckland electorate of New Lynn, and former Minister of Communications and IT (and previously Health Minister)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">David Shearer, the 54-year old MP for the Auckland electorate of Mt. Albert</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Grant Robertson, the 40-year old MP for Wellington Central</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Nanaia Mahuta, the 41-year old MP for the Māori electorate of Te Tai Hauāuru.</span></li>
</ul><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cunliffe and Mahuta are a ticket, the former presented as leader with the latter as his deputy. They claim to represent a broad front with appeal to both pakeha (white) and Māori voters. As Polynesians and Asians form a sizeable chunk of the electorate, for Cunliffe to refer to NZ society as being bi-cultural is inaccurate. However, he's an articulate, confident and acutely bright former management consultant with a long political pedigree. I guess he'd make a formidable opponent to PM John Key. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Robertson stated that he's not too fussed which top job he gets, a somewhat confusing stance and one which might rule him out for the leadership on fuzziness grounds.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Shearer has so far gained only two years' parliamentary exposure since being parachuted into former prime minister Helen Clark's Mt. Albert seat. Voted 1992 New Zealander of the Year in a <i>New Zealand Herald</i> poll, Shearer's previous stellar UN career, international connections and Iraq reconstruction and humanitarian experience might make him a viable contender if it weren't for being a relative novice in the mechanics of Wellington politics. But, he'd be a fresh face, untainted by association with the last Labour government's record. However, what influence could Clark have over a Shearer leadership? The fact that she now holds a senior UN role might be viewed by pundits or some voters with suspicion. Rumours circulate that Goff and King back his candidature. Whether that's antipathy to the prospect of a Cunliffe leadership, genuine liking for Shearer or hope they'll be able to back-seat-drive a Shearer-led party, who knows? But Shearer is a personable individual in need of experience yet with the desire to review policy from first principles and promote a greener, techier future. He envisages a party reaching out beyond its traditional support base, a novel and sensible proposition.</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Parker is an ex-lawyer. Smooth-tongued legal types can often argue their route to power, but few have sound business acumen. Internationally, Tony Blair, Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy all came up via that route. Would their leaderships be viewed as successful? </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Other contenders have yet to declare.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Whether any of these characters has he drive, foresight and management ability to return the Labour Party to fighting-fit shape remains to be seen. Let's hope the battle is brutal and exposes any obvious weaknesses early on. And that a genuinely gifted individual takes charge to reform a debilitated and demoralised party and return it to office. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">A million Kiwis failed to vote. Could it be that they were bored. Elections every three years. A dull campaign, teams struggling to focus on real issues, poorly reported, and the two main parties led by unimaginative and uncharismatic men. Asset sales became the big point of difference, yet those assets amounted to a mere 3% of the government's holdings. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The one bright spark in the campaign was the attention devoted to Winston Peters. He's a guy all but written off at the last election yet managed to burst back with two-thirds the seats of the Greens who had taken 21 years to reach a 13 seat caucus. The environmentalists must be green with envy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">No wonder people were turned off. The gritty stuff was ignored: mining coal to increase the carbon footprint as climate change takes hold, while already tested sustainable energy production methods were ignored which could be marketed or franchised to huge global impact. BEV, the Waikato university developed electric car could be a prototype for a modern government-funded production facility, for example. Numerous other Kiwi inventors scour the world for capital, while too little is available in New Zealand.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And still, after all these years, dairy production reigns. But for how long will the world regard this product suite as healthy? Global research increasingly indicates there could be a possible link between modern production methods and breast, prostate and colon cancers. There has been no debate about this. Or about which industries might be developed to wean the country off an excess dependence on agricultural exports.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Recent migration has changed demographics forever, yet there was zero discussion as to how best to benefit from new arrivals. And how to retain them. The influx of Asians is a game changer. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Ambitious Kiwis still seek opportunities abroad yet the country could offer so much. No ambitious plan was articulated on how to entice fresh capital, retain inventive elements onshore, create world-class education establishments or build a vibrant venture capital industry to stimulate start-ups. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Labour focussed on expenditure to off-set the squeeze on the poor, yet didn't describe an exciting vision for the nation's future. Nor did it take National to task for failing to do likewise.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So, the people were left bereft of a meaningful or colourful debate. The result was abstention. And Labour suffered a drift from its support base which cost it this election. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Unless these issues are addressed they'll find that changing a leader alters nothing. They'll be in the same place as the Labour Party in Britain after Thatcher took power, or the Tories were after Blair took office: several changes of leadership before one happy soul engages the country with a fresh philosophy - capturing the imagination of the people, and sweeping the opposition back into office. But that can happen only when a stale government stumbles. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">That can take a decade. Goff is well out of it. And Labour has its work cut out to find from within reduced ranks a man or woman who can move the party forward to re-engage voters.<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Healthy democracy in New Zealand deserves no less.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Update 1 December 2011</b>: After one of the briefest campaigns in history, Parker dropped out and endorsed Shearer. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Update 2 December: 2011</b>: We now learn that Parker's withdrawal was prompted by "running mate" Robertson's decision to back Shearer, according to the <i>New Zealand Herald</i>. So Robertson is out of the running for the top post, after all. This is now a two-horse race between the two remaining Davids.</span></span></div><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-43597821124652660502011-11-29T12:06:00.015+13:002011-11-30T15:30:57.598+13:00Pakistan: Could Imran Khan clean up politics?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Khan's party, the PTI, gains momentum. The ex-cricket ace turned politician has spent 15 years on the campaign trail. Is this his time?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>O</b>nline polls indicate popular support regularly exceeding 50%, as huge crowds gather to hear Khan deliver anti-corruption speeches. A new politics in Pakistan is in the offing. And former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has indicated he might opt for the </span><span style="font-size: small;">Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which translated from Urdu means the Pakistan Movement for Justice. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Elections are due next year, in all probability. Could 59-year old Imran Khan, who until now has failed to make a real impact on the parliamentary scene, be about to win outright? He'd be propelled into office with an enormous mandate from people tired of dynastic politics and endemic corruption. It's taken an age for Khan to reach this point. After leading Pakistan to glory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup, he married socialite Jemima Goldsmith in 1995. His extraordinary cricketing record was followed by work as a philathropist, and he founded the fledgling PTI in Lahore in 1996. Jemima and Imran divorced in 2004, after when he devoted his energies to promoting his policies and expanding the party membership. Rallies regularly attract vast numbers. In Lahore this month, around 150,000 people jostled together in a crushing crowd to hear Khan speak. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pakistan sure needs help. Issues include:</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><ul style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><li><span style="font-size: small;">Unprecedented floods displacing millions</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Tortuous foreign relations with the Americans over drone attacks and the killing of Bin Laden</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Rampant poverty</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">A discredited military</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">A resurgent home-grown Taliban</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Reputed tacit support from Pakistani elements for the Afghan Taliban </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Lawlessness in </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Pukhtunkhwa</span></span>, the former N<span style="font-size: small;">orth-West Frontier Province</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Baluch separatist aspirations</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Ongoing rifts with India over Kashmir</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Alleged ISI involvement in Lashkar-e-Taiba's attack on the Taj Mahal Palace hotel and other sites in Mumbai in 2008.</span></li>
</ul><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Notes: </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Baluchistan is Pakistan's largest province and borders Afghanistan and Iran </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">ISI is Pakistan's intelligence service</span></div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lashkar-e-Taiba is an Islamic terrorist organisation.</span></span></span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">There's a lot to put right. And Pakistan needs vigorous anti-graft government to ensure effective foreign aid distribution and more rapid economic growth. Above all, the country deserves political stability and an environment which entices foreign inward investment and reduces emigration.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Khan's relationship with the army and security services is critical. However this man, whose reputation for integrity is probably well-deserved, has walked a fine line in his analysis of the military. Sporadic coups have regularly interrupted the development of democracy in Pakistan since independence after WWII, and Khan maintained in a recent book that "Only a credible government can save and strengthen the Pakistan army by making sure it stays within its constitutional role. We have no other choice: in order to survive, we have to make Pakistan a genuine democracy" reported <i>Islam Times</i> on 23 November.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">To borrow and alter a phrase from Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, it appears right now that if anyone is able to clean up Pakistani politics, "Imran Khan". </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Spin the globe and check out the <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">Index here. </a></b></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-6926321573041846292011-11-29T08:58:00.017+13:002011-12-09T06:56:45.426+13:00India: Political dynasties reign supreme<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Although not the sole preserve of the Subcontinent, political dynasties thwart genuine meritocratic advance.</span></div><a name='more'></a><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>R</b>ahul Gandhi is being groomed as India's next Prime Minister. When 79-year old incumbent Manmohan Singh finally departs, the Indian National Congress will seek a successor. Where else would they look other than Congress Leader Sonia Gandhi's only son, Rahul. His gifted sister <b>Priyanka Vadra</b> has ruled herself out, by all accounts.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Should either of Sonia's offspring be elevated they would follow in the footsteps of a long line of Gandhi family political heavyweights:</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span class="sb13" style="font-size: small;"><b>(1) Motilal Nehru</b>, father of Pandit Nehru and Rahul's great-great-grandfather was twice President of the Congress party from 1919 to 1920 and from 1928 to 1929. He founded India's most successful political dynasty</span><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>(2) Jawaharlal "Pandit" Nehru</b>, Rahul's great-grandfather was prime minister of India from independence in 1947 until 1964</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>(3) Indira Gandhi</b>, Panditji's daughter and Rahul's grandmother was PM from 1966 to 1977, and again from 1980 until her assassination in 1984</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>(4) Rajiv Gandhi</b>, Indira's son and Rahul's father ruled from 1984 until 1989. He himself was assassinated two years' later, in 1991. <b>Sonia Gandhi</b>, Rajiv's Italian-born widow and Rahul's mother, now heads the Congress party as its President. Rajiv's younger brother <b>Sanjay Gandhi</b> had been expected to become prime minister, and was groomed to assume power, but died in a plane crash in 1980. After his death the mantle was passed to a reluctant Rajiv.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>(5) </b><b>Rahul Gandhi</b>, Indian National Congress member of the Lok Sabha for Amethi in Uttar Pradesh; General-Secretary of the Indian National Congress. </span> </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The Nehru-Gandhis have now been in control for 37 of 64 years since independence from Britain. Isn't such nepotism constraining? How can more talented people gain power when the mantle of office is consistently handed to someone for no reason other than their blood line? Clearly, tutelage and the experience gained from being raised in a political household would provide an individual with credentials. But real talent, ambition, strength of character, inventiveness and charisma are typically inherent in someone and cannot be learnt.</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Nehru-Gandhis are not the only political family in India by any stretch. Far from it. There are enduring political dynasties in most states, many other them with multiple generations of engagement. </span><span style="font-size: small;">There appear to be historic reasons for this. According to <i>Indian Liberals, </i>the problem stems from<i> </i>a <i>"</i>combination of the caste system and the feudalistic mindset". This might explain why India is not alone amongst South Asian nations for having an over-supply of these political clans. Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka all have such families with a strong interest in or hold on power.</span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Even in the tiny Himalayan Dragon kingdom with its developing democracy, Dr. Tshering Cigay Dorji posed last year "will elected political dynasties emerge in Bhutan?" The Thimphu-based telecommunications engineer and blogger wrote "many people from humble backgrounds have risen to high positions in the civil service in the past" but attachment to the "importance of ancestry" means that it's likely Bhutan "will have elected political dynasties in the future".</span></div></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">However, as India is developing into an economic superpower, its billion or so people deserve better than to be run by close-knit families.<span id="advenueINTEXT" name="advenueINTEXT"> If India wishes to get the most out of its people it must offer opportunities for advancement based on merit. There may very well be people with blood ties who could rise to prominance, but really do genetics have to be decider in this modern day and age?</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-35156503344281157362011-11-29T02:08:00.010+13:002011-11-29T16:15:24.642+13:00China: Sovereign wealth to the rescue of the West?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As Europe and America face a double-dip recession, the Chinese propose investing in infrastucture projects.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>C</b>hina Investment Corporation (CIC), the country's biggest sovereign wealth fund, has approached the British government to find out if it can invest in public-private partnership projects, according to the <i>BBC</i>. Almost simulaneously the OECD has warned that Britain is set to follow Germany into recession. Although, the OECD reckons this down-turn will occur in the UK at the start of next year, and is likely to be mild.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The British government is keen to get such infrastructure projects going in an effort to stimulate economic growth. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Recently, <i>The Economist </i>commented on Liverpool's burgeoning links with China in <i>Here comes the Yuan </i>and how the city was attracting sizeable investment capital due to its twinning with Shanghai: "Liverpool Vision (the council’s inward investment arm) has set up a dedicated office in Shanghai. The Peel Group, an infrastructure and real-estate outfit, hosted a pavilion at the Shanghai World Expo last year. It is courting Chinese sovereign-wealth funds to develop Liverpool’s derelict northern dockyards. The plans include a 60-storey “Shanghai tower” ... The Peel Group has already secured Chinese cash for a development in Birkenhead, across the Mersey."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Perhaps this is the start of a far more productive, mutually beneficial relationship between China and the UK, and augers well for other countries in the beleaguered West. In June, UK PM David Cameron announced an additional £1.4bn of trade agreements between the two countries, and predicted that bilateral trade could hit US$100bn by 2015.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The prospect of China's sovereign wealth stimulating British growth through infrastructure investment adds to this flowering trading connection.</span></span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">By the end of 2010 CIC's assets under management reached US$410bn. Set up in 2007 to manage China's foreign exchange reserves, the fund has already invested heavily in international equities. In 2007 it acquired a US$3bn holding in Blackstone, an American private equity concern, and a 9.9% stake in Morgan Stanley, a US investment bank. According to a 2009 report in <i>Economic Observer</i>, CIC began directing its resources more towards the "real economy". So in August this year the fund spent US$3.5bn buying stock in GDF Suez, a French energy multinational. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This latest foray into infrastructure takes it deeper still into the real economy. And will improve the effectiveness of the UK and those G20 nations willing to engage. No sign yet, it seems, of such investment opportunities being realised in America, which needs an injection of capital to improve transport links, stimulate activity and reduce unemployment.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div><br />
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</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-8790932025073825272011-11-28T07:57:00.014+13:002011-11-28T09:55:19.355+13:00America: Recession risk now 50% says top fund manager<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The US stares a contracting economy in the face, at a time when the nation is already hurting badly.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>T</b>he CEO of PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, has described the American outlook as "terrifying" in a report from <i>Bloomberg</i>. El-Erian warns that the risk of recession comes at a time when "unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time when the fiscal deficit is at 9 percent and at a time when interest rates are at zero." </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">His status alone, and the reputation of his firm, should make people sit up and take note. For autonomous California-based Pacific Investment Management Company employs 1,200 people and sits within the Allianz group, a major German financial services organisation. PIMCO manages some US$1trn in assets and is the world's largest bond investor. Furthermore, its Total Return Fund is the world's largest mutual fund. As well as being PIMCO's chief executive, El-Erian is the firm's co-Chief Investment Officer.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">America's economy is already slowing, with the <i>BBC</i> reporting that the pace dropped to an annual rate of 2% in the last quarter. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The six Republican and six Democrat members of the US congressional sub-committee set up last August and charged with reducing the deficit by US$1.2trn announced last Tuesday that it had failed to reach a deal. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The American political system is now in deadlock, it seems. And President Barack Obama's administration is effectively a lame-duck executive limbering its way towards the 2012 presidential election.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">At a time when the country desperately requires a forthright programme of government action, America is in a policy straightjacket. Exporting its way out of the doldrums might be a cute move, but even Obama's Pacific Century plan will take an age to get off the ground, as there's considerable work to be done to attract the Japanese into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Export superpower Japan is dogged by "passionate protectionism", as <i>The Economist </i>describes it. The newspaper reports that Japan exports 65 vehicles to the US to every one it imports. In 2010 America's trade deficit with Japan amounted to a shocking c. US$60bn, and by September this year it had reached approximately US$43.7bn, according to the US Census Bureau.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"> The US exports less to the world than Germany, a country with a quarter the population. No wonder the Americans are so keen to attract Japan into the TPP. The Japanese ought to liberalise, in particular reform services to stimulate growth. To be sure, the world - and especially America - needs this rapidly to offset the possibility of Mr. El-Erian's fears being realised. The TPP is a regional free trade club and on 11 November Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced negotiations to join. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Ultimately the group may consist of Canada, Mexico, America, Australia, Malaysia, Peru, Vietnam, Singapore, Chile, New Zealand and Brunei. Plus Japan. The TPP would ultimately produce something like 40% of global GDP. However, this is all a long way off and a vigorous thrust is required right now.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-76261416663627567232011-11-27T21:27:00.027+13:002011-12-04T08:49:35.795+13:00World Economy: Here come the Civets<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>B</b>usinesspeople and pundits had to coin a term for them, but these emerging economies are the latest fad to entice the investment community, it seems. Unsurprising list in reality, with the exception of Egypt and South Africa. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">The southern African country appears to be entering a new phase of press censorship via a new secrets act, alongside political infighting in and surrounding the dominant ANC. And Egypt's economy is in a dire condition after nearly a year of political unrest. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Back in late 2009 when the ancronym was invented by Robert Ward, Global Foreecasting Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, Egypt was stable and Julius Malema had yet to be ejected from the African National Congress. Nevertheless, a long view is taken of these economies, which are estimated to grow by an average of 4.9% during the twenty years from 2009.</span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Political instability and a lack of synergy between these countries is of concern, despite Standard & Poors launching an 'S&P Civets 60 Index' to track the top 10 performing stocks on local exchanges. As Tom Biggar of Torquil Clarke Invests told the <i>BBC</i>, "adventurous investors should only consider (having) no more than 5% of their portfolio in this area."</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">With the exception of Egyp</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">t, economic growth rates amongst the Civets are impressive. Columbia is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2011, Indonesia by 6.5%, Vietnam by 5.8%, Egypt by 0.6%, Turkey by 7.5% and South Africa by 3.1%. In a volatile time for equities, only three of their stockmarkets have outpertformed in local currency terms since the beginning of the year: Venezuela by + 75.2%, Indonesia by +3.0% and South Africa by +1.7%. </span></span></span></div><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">HSBC is among many financial institutions to set up funds with the express aim of reaping benefits from these rapidly-expanding non-BRIC economies.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">When will OECD countries cotton on to what's happening, as investors search out more challenging and durable markets?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Certain places need to take note. <i>The Economist</i> sites New Zealand, Belgium, France, Australia, the UK, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden as countries where property prices are anything up to 25% overvalued. In most of these personal debt is stuck at historic highs. And <i>The Economist </i>reckons that in Belgium, France, Australia and Canada houses look "more overvalued than ... in America at the height of the bubble". </span><br />
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</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>The Economist </i>used "price-to-income ratios - a gauge of affordability - and price-to-rent ratios" to calculate its findings. Even when housing supply issues are taken into account, as in Auckland and Southern England, these are disturbing times.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Encouragingly, ANZ Bank's property analyst David Cannington said "ratios didn’t give the full picture. Household financial stability was still quite strong, people were paying down debt and unemployment was not causing significant stress" reported the <i>Sydney Morning Herald</i> in an attempt to calm Australian readers.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In any event, as property owners in these developed countries fret about their most vital asset, wouldn't a re-direction of wealth out of property and into developing industry and productivity and stimulating innovation be preferable?</span><br />
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In New Zealand, a country with an undercapitalised stock market, the government plans to sell minority stakes in four state-owned power companies as well as the national airline in order to boost private investment in equities. For too long property has been viewed as a safe long-term asset class, a strategy which has left entrepreneurs and expanding businesses short of seed and risk capital. The opposition Labour Party champions the concept of a capital gains tax (CGT), but this would not be restricted to investment property. The National Party was right to criticise any proposal which would disincentivise risk-taking start-up entrepreneurs from reaping the rewards of their endeavours. But National was wrong to rule out the idea of a CGT altogether, for any measure which would rake back investment from the property market and return it to the sharemarket or place it into venture capital funds should be applauded.</span></div><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Money tied up in land and houses should be released to grow the economies of OECD countries. Competition with the BRICs, Civets and others is bound to become increasingly hard for many. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As G7 growth during the twenty years from 2009 is projected to average 1.8%, it's possible to see why responsible economic growth has to be pursued by mature economies before they find themselves lagging embarrassingly behind recently emerged ones.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">A re-think has to be on the cards.</span></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-85394590499963722302011-11-27T10:44:00.010+13:002011-11-28T13:11:09.451+13:00Morocco: Moderate Islamists triumph<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Magreb begins to show the way to other countries engaged in the Arab Awakening, as a trend emerges of moderate Islamist victories.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>E</b>mulating the highly successful moderate Islamist Justice and Development government of Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, initially Hamadi Jebali's Ennahda Movement in Tunisia and now Morocco's PJD led by Abdelilah Benkirane have won their respective countries' first democratic elections. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the Moroccan election, the PJD took 107 of 395 parliamentary seats and under newly-devised constitutional arrangements King Mohamed VI must invite the leader of the largest party to form a government.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">A trend is emerging. When Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in Egypt, fear was expressed in the West of a takeover by hardline Islamic purists amongst the Muslim Brotherhood. Concerns have been raised also about extremists taking power in Syria and elsewhere. But these appear to be ill-founded. The experience so far is of popular deference to democracy and a preference for a pluralist society. Turkey showed everyone the way, Tunisia followed suit and now Morocco looks set to form a coalition of moderates embracing broad electoral appeal. This bodes well for Libya, where a democratic state is being forged at long last. It's also encouraging for Egypt, where the Brotherhood has lost ground lately as they've stood aloof as people struggle to oust the military 'interim' regime prior to upcoming elections.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Moroccan King's power stems from the monarchy's huge popularity. It was always going to be likely there'd be a peaceful transition towards a constitutional role for the head of state. At present, Mohamed VI retains policy control over defence, security and religion. He's bound to want to hang on to power over the first two in particular. And by claiming direct line of descendence from the Prophet, the <i>Ameer Al Moomeneen</i> or prince of the believers<i> </i>has a special role to play, and place in Moroccan society, when it comes to religious matters.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><br />
</i></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Morocco enters a new phase in its history<i> </i>with the arrival on the scene of a democratically elected Prime Minister. And moderate Islam appears to be gaining the upper hand. Turkey's mature democracy is a true role model indeed. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-25515436954967610482011-11-27T08:07:00.017+13:002011-11-27T16:54:34.627+13:00New Zealand: Key to the future<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Experience counts.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>J</b>ohn Key rides high today. The Prime Minister is vindicated in Epsom and Ōhariu, and National can press ahead with those contentious <b><a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-zealand-why-is-pm-pressing-ahead.html">asset sales</a></b>. Could the emboldened government begin to unveil a more ambitious plan for the country? Dealing with dire social issues and arresting the <b><a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-zealand-loss-of-talent-to-australia.html">cross-Tasman migration</a> </b>flow are two vital goals. I hope National can now raise its game and begin to develop lasting economic growth through the repatriation of capital and the attraction of positive inward investment. Whipping up enthusiasm from the disengaged youth should be a major aspiration going forward.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Key's prediction that the Conservatives would poll low proved correct as Colin Craig failed to win Rodney. Can the Conservatives' 2.8% showing prove sufficient to ensure the party's survival? It's true to say that the votes they achieved deprived National of an outright win. This fact could be employed by the Conservatives to boost their influence in future. They could endorse certain National electorate candidates in 2014 as <b><a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/britain-inexorable-rise-of-ukip.html">UKIP</a></b> has done to the British Tories. They have three years in which to forge a viable Rodney constituency force to ensure a win next time.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">New Zealand First was propelled back into parliament with eight seats, which means that the party can succession-plan for a post-Peters future. Winston Peters confounded the pundits and sceptics, and his experience shows. He will be a formidable critic on opposition benches, and his team of novices will be on a steep learning curve. The party could yet vie with Labour for the chief opposition mantle. And they have until 2014 to create strong constituency associations in various target electorates. This is New Zealand's sole populist movement, and they have broad support on which to build.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Despite a robust and engaging campaign, Phil Goff is set to resign, paving the way for a new Labour Leader to take the party forward proposing a realistic agenda incorporating policies like raising the retirement age. Their choice of leader will determine their chances next time. But as we all know, governments tend to lose elections rather than oppositions win them. All an official opposition party can do is be a government-in-waiting, crispy clean with an attractive agenda and bide their time waiting for the incumbent party to stumble. With careful and pragmatic Key at the helm, Labour could have a lengthy wait. But Labour is weak on the ground these days. Shoring up core support won't win an election, but merely ensure that the party survives. They have to win back middle New Zealand, much of whom now regularly vote Green.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">John Banks' survival in Epsom enables Catherine Isaac to assist in developing a strategy for the party's future. Although, certain names touted as potential leaders are still unrealistically young.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Can United Future survive the veteran Peter Dunne's retirement, or will more likely the party go the way of Jim Anderton's Progressives and fade into oblivion? Dunne might be back this time, but will he be around again in 2014? And his Ōhariu constituency would most likely revert to Labour when he goes.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Maori Party has suffered the fate of minority coalition parties the world over and lost support at a subsequent election. They must make real gains this time in their bargaining with National otherwise they could experience a further fall in 2014. The spat with Hone Harawira cost them one seat at least. Can they experience a resurgence? And how long can the present ageing leadership continue, and is there a leader-in-waiting in the wings? If they do have a leadership succession strategy they're keeping it awful quiet.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/world-rise-of-greens.html">The Greens</a> </b>did amazingly well. They've intelligent, experienced and articulate people in their parliamentary ranks these days. Their party vote rose in a number of affluent electorates, and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that several of these constituencies could be won outright in 2014 if the Greens persist in their campaigning throughout the term of this next parliament. But right now talking up their concerns and advocating their policies won't alter the political landscape or protect the geographic one. They might get press coverage, but shaping government policy is the only way to effect change and improve the environment. And remaining outside the corridors of power might be the pure route, but is it the sensible one?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Key's victory is a personal triumph. What I found astounding was the quietness of the process, the low-level media coverage, the lack of celebration at the news of the National Party victory, and the failed impact of strong candidates in several constituencies. It seems that Kiwis vote alright, but they do so out of duty and with little enthusiasm. How engaged in the process are they really? Perhaps they're more whipped up by sport than they are by the proclamations and ambitions of politicians. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Pundits may rage and analyse, but the people appear to take the view that life goes on regardless. Will their votes really matter at the end of the day? Only John Key, Bill English, Steven Joyce and colleagues can respond to that. They could deliver on promises, demonstrate that their programme actually works, and forge a future of which New Zealanders can be justly proud. But there seems to be a long way to go before they capture the imagination of the people. Turnout was lower again this time and dropped to the level of a decade ago. That fact alone must be a sobering one for National's campaign chief Steven Joyce to digest. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">This was yet another <b><a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-zealand-keep-but-adjust-mmp.html">MMP</a></b> result, with National governing only with the support of tiny minor parties. Should ACT fail to rebuild by 2014 and United Future expire next time, National enters a precarious place indeed. John Key had better prove his mettle during his second term, but that will not be an easy task given impending global economic catastrophe. He will need all his powers of persuasion to navigate his way through choppy political waters over these next years.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">He might possess negotiating skills, salesmanship and determination. But does Key actually have the imagination to steer New Zealand to a "brighter future", or was that mere campaign rhetoric?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-66794363952880308252011-11-26T08:46:00.011+13:002011-12-05T07:27:23.021+13:00Britain: Employing the young<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Deputy Prime Minister unveils a £1bn scheme to reduce youth unemployment. Firms need more encouragement still.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>N</b>ick Clegg, the government's No.2, has rolled out a new policy to increase the number of work placements and training schemes to get the young unemployed into work. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It's a significant issue, not just in Britain but in numerous countries. If the young can't find work as they leave school or college how can they apply later for jobs which require existing experience? Despite austerity, one billion is a paltry sum in comparison to the lasting and damaging effects of unemployment on the fabric of society.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Almost simultaneously, the<i> Express</i> reported that around 12,000 foreigners every month have been snapping up jobs which could easily have been offered to Brits. It's a quandary for companies as they raise the bar in customer service and delivery. Many would prefer to hire experienced foreigners in preference to inexperienced locals. Perhaps Clegg's plan will go some way to addressing this. But more could be done.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The European Union has just levied a retrospective tax bill of £20m on the UK for importing fresh garlic from China 2005-6 and charging on it the lower frozen garlic import duty rate. The EU wants the short-fall made up. In reporting the story, the <i>Telegraph</i> noted that 12% of the EU's budget is derived from duties on imports from outside the Union.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> If it's alright to tax imported goods, why not labour?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Companies should be taxed a prohibitive rate for importing foreign workers. This would make them think twice, and most might elect the cheaper option of employing an inexperienced young Brit or other resident local with "indefinite leave to remain". </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">It must, surely, be preferable for the country to have all of its working-age people in jobs, training or education. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Nobody would suggest that it should be made impossible for companies to employ any foreigners at all, for there are many who add considerable value by bringing useful expertise and knowledge to the UK. But it's perverse that companies should follow a policy of employing foreign workers in preference to local ones on the grounds that it's cheaper and more profitable. When at the same time the country has to pick up the tab for the damage this wreaks on society at large.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-46331031462568986522011-11-25T23:03:00.010+13:002011-11-30T08:32:23.904+13:00Gambia: President confident despite ECOWAS snub<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The African Union said the elections went off well though, as Jammeh awaits victory.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><br />
</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Y</b>ou might consider elections in a slither of land either side a distant West African river is an irrelevant topic. But The Gambia was once so much freer. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">This little country of a million or so people is steadfastly independent, and rightly so. Surrounded on three sides by the Senegalese, Gambians might have been poor, multicultural and, if it weren't for tourism and peanut farming, forgotten but they were fiercely proud. Now they are "cowed by repression and intimidation" according to the local regional economic club to which they belong, ECOWAS.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">But that finding was fantasy, evidently. According to <span class="st">Samuel Fonkam, leader of African Union poll monitors said that the presidential ballot was "well organized and devoid of intimidation" according to the <i>BBC</i>.</span> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Who was right?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I suspect the former.<b> <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/10/election-special-gambia.html">President Yahya Jammeh</a></b>, in power already since 1994, will be re-elected with another resounding majority. Why bother to hold an election, if other than to secure more rounds of foreign aid. The locals won't rise up. They'll carry on regardless, although it won't be much like a British comedy film starring Sid James, Joan Sims and Kenneth Williams.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">ECOWAS has always been treated with a degree of indifference in the Gambia anyway. Why should anything change? ECOWAS' assertions were discounted during the campaign by one of Jammeh's two man challengers, Hamat Bah of the United Front coalition, who couldn't recall any incidence of intimidation and was concerned that claims by the ECOWAS Monitors could discourage his supporters from voting.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So there you are. Another almost certain Jammeh landslide. All free and fair, so they say. Tell that to the average Gambian on the Serrekunda omnibus and watch his reaction.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-7281330796937231652011-11-25T12:59:00.044+13:002011-11-26T13:29:46.798+13:00New Zealand: The hidden election story is the Conservatives<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Why did TV and the printed media ignore it, and did John Key take tea with the wrong guy?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>T</b>he people vote in a general electoion on Saturday, 26 November. In the<i> New Zealand Herald </i>today, with some 11,000 votes cast, an ongoing online poll measures 3% support for the Conservatives, so far. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The final <i>OneNews</i> Colmar Brunton poll which talked to over a thousand Kiwis over five days, calculated that the recently formed Conservatives had improved to 2.4%, prompting <i>TVNZ </i>Political Editor Guyon Espinar to ask "whether John Key picked the wrong party to have a cup of tea with." He was, of course, referring to the prime minister's cosy chat with John Banks in Epsom. Banks looks set to fail in the Auckland seat, while Conservative leader Colin Craig might well beat off his National challenger in Rodney. Should Craig win, the Conservatives would arrive in parliament with three MPs.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Conservatives' campaign has suffered from limited coverage as local media has instead focussed on seemingly meatier subjects like Banks' Epsom battle and the prospect of ACT's demise, Winston Peters' prospects of breaching the 5% mark thus returning him and New Zealand First colleagues to Wellington without winning an electorate seat, and the Green surge. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">All three issues are notable, for sure. But the Greens won't work with National and, with Labour polling at c. 30%, the environmentalists are unlikely to be involved in formulating policy. And Peters claims a preference for opposition, arguing policy on a case-by-case basis. <i>OneNews </i>Colmar Brunton has NZ First at 4.2%, thus falling short in any event by 0.8%.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">These polls are subject to a significant margin of error. And if taken over several days, many voters could well have been interviewed prior to final televised leaders' debates. On the day people might vote differently, and in past elections Green support has dropped off as polling takes place. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">So, while National is riding high, by many recent measures exceeding 50% support, the outcome remains uncertain. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Labour has swelled its support as the campaign has progressed. Leader Phil Goff, while avoiding problematic marginals, has had a generally good press and campaign. The result could be tight. And National might need a coalition partner or two to govern. The moderate-left Maori Party, while having seen its support dip, will still gain several electorate seats. They seem comfortable in their dealings in government so far. And it looks likely to me that Key will offer them another shot at coalition. He'd like a balancing right-of-centre ally, for sure, and should ACT be unsuccessful he'd need a replacement.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Enter the Conservatives.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Due to the lack of coverage resulting from poor media interest, I don't believe any polling firm has been hired by a major publication to report on voter intentions in the semi-rural Auckland seat of Rodney. However, should Colin Craig's well-crafted, super-funded and carefully marketed campaign succeed, the Conservatives may well find themselves knocking on the Cabinet door.</span><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The Auckland-based <i>New Zealand Herald</i> only list the policies of those parties already represented in parliament, together with regularly high polling minor party New Zealand First. However, the Conservatives appear to embrace a natural constituency and will possibly achieve more votes than ACT, United Future, Mana or Maori parties.</span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So, what exactly is the Conservatives' agenda? It appears to include:</span></span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(1) <u>Governance</u>: less politicians, greater honesty, equality and unity rather than division, more referenda.</span></span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(2) <u>Law & Order</u>: more justice for victims, tougher action on criminals, proactive initiatives to reduce offending.</span></span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(3) <u>Economy</u>: a plan for economic prosperity involving bolstering the farming sector and scrapping the emissions trading scheme (ETS), reduce fuel and power prices.</span></span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(4) <u>Families</u>: more support for parents, scrap the anti-smacking legislation, establish impartial inquiry into family breakdown and child abuse, parental approval of teenage abortion. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The result from Rodney electorate to the north of Auckland city at the 2008 general election was as follows:</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lockwood Smith, <b>National</b>, 22,698 or 60.41%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Connor Roberts, <b>Labour</b>, 7,063 or 18.8%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">David Hay, <b>Green</b>, 2,890 or 7.69</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Beryl Good, <b>ACT</b>, 1,760 or 4.68%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Tracey Martin, <b>NZ First</b>, 1,599 or 4.26%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Karl Adams,<b> Family Party</b>, 735 or 1.96%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Simonne Dyer, <b>Kiwi Party</b>, 581 or 1.55%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Kathleen Deal, <b>United Future</b>, 245 or 0.65%.<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lockwood Smith was subsequently elected parliamentary Speaker. Mark Mitchell has replaced Smith as National candidate for Rodney. Tracey Martin remains the NZ First candidate. United Future is not putting up a candidate in 2011. The Greens and ACT have changed candidates since 2008. </span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The Christian centre-right Family Party has disbanded, and the Christian centre-right Kiwi party has effectively been absorbed into the Conservatives. Colin Craig can expect to attract a considerable local following due to socal and business connections and his father Ross's work as a local Councellor</span></span>.</span> He might also expect to pick up support from former Family and Kiwi voters. On paper, he has a mountain to climb, but he is likely to have run a strong campaign.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">It seems strange that much of the media failed to spot the rise of the Conservatives. True investigative reporting is apparently rare in the Land of the Long White Cloud. Perhaps the media like to witness success before taking new parties seriously. </span></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Yet, to be fair, journalists and camera crews might speed en-masse up to Rodney tonight in a rushed attempt to capture the scene before before polls open tomorrow. <i>Campbell Live</i> on <i>TV3 </i>has a reputation for rapid response. We'll see.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Update later on November 25, 2011</b>: </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Well, at least <i>TV3 News</i> covered it, visiting the constituency and interviewing Craig and Mitchell, as well as Key wherever he was campaigning. Craig, who has a penchant for private polling, remarked that even at this late stage some 20% of the electorate remains "undecided". </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">I noticed a remark from one political analyst who said, under the proportional MMP voting system, history informs that every small party that's got "near to government" suffers a fall in support at the subsequent election. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">This is certainly the experience of the minor coalition party in the UK. There, the Liberal Democrats have watched in horror as their vote share has dropped from 23% in May 2010 to an average of 9% now. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Should Colin Craig and his colleagues reach the New Zealand House of Representatives, they would be better advised to refuse tantalising offers of ministerial jobs.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">In New Zealand,<b> <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/11/world-rise-of-greens.html">the Greens</a></b> have successfully raised their profile having avoided the baubles of office. This time round they could possibly double their representation if they can hold on to support as people go the polls.</span><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-83139021210518021212011-11-25T10:06:00.006+13:002011-11-26T15:27:56.654+13:00Belgium: Sinking into the abyss?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The King breaks off convalescence to deal with the ongoing constitutional crisis as Belgian borrowing costs "spike". Is this the end?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>T</b>here he was, quietly attempting to recover from a skin cancer operation, and King Albert II had to interrupt his break to talk to interim PM and Socialist leader Elio Di Rupio and four other party leaders in an attempt, yet again, to break the deadlock. Belgium has been without a new coalition government for nearly eighteen months since elections were held in June 2010.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The country appears broken, unable to deal with rapidly rising borrowing costs to fund the over-bloated and inefficient state aparatus, and slidling remorselessly towards division.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">How long can this state remain in tact, when the Flemings and Walloons can't see eye-to-eye. The one unifying figure, the monarch, seems unable to knock heads together. And Flanders could yet spring forth as an independent state.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As you exit Brussels Central station by rail en-route for Amsterdam, it is quite apparent how much wealthier Flanders is than Wallonia. More striking still is the stark difference between Belgium and Holland, a land of neatness and gleaming modernity, mixed with spruced-up architecture from wealthy historic times. Dutch-speaking Flanders might envy their northern neighbours, as the Flemings struggle to free themselves from the liabilities and weight of the Belgian state.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Back in 2007, Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, recalled his days as a reporter in Brussels. Writing in the <i>Telegraph</i>, he spoke of Belgium's modern predicament and warned that the country - after 102 days without a government (then, too!) was "now on the verge of a tragic disintegration." What would Boris say now after a year and a half without a dynamic and democratically-elected administration in place?</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-14264045257470727742011-11-25T09:23:00.005+13:002011-11-25T09:38:18.051+13:00Europe: What prospect for the Euro?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">If Germany's position is precarious, can the single currency survive?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>T</b>he recent German government bond auction went off badly, with a sizeable tranche remaining unsold. Cheap borrowing is no longer possible for the Germans, it seems. And, as the <i>New York Times </i>points out, the one thing that could save the Euro - the issuance of Eurobonds backed by all 17 Eurozone countries - has been rejected by Germany as it would drive German borrowing costs up even further.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div class="artfirstpara" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So, when the top British banking and building society regulator, Andrew Bailey of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), warns "UK banks should be prepared for the complete break-up of the eurozone or the disorderly departure from it of some states" as the<i> London Evening Standard r</i>eports, we ought really to envisage a world without a European single currency.</span></div><div class="artfirstpara" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div class="artfirstpara" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Funny that, as only last week German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble was claiming, somewhat absurdly, that Britain would abandon the pound and join the single currency "faster than people think" the<i> Telegraph </i>noted<i>. </i>Well, it appears certain leading lights in the FSA disagree.<b> </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div><div class="artfirstpara"><br />
</div><div class="artfirstpara"><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6789853048889996288.post-15640790660864566892011-11-25T08:18:00.010+13:002011-11-25T10:49:25.532+13:00Asia: Slowing down<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The economies of Asia are beginning to slow. How fast and for how long?</span></div><a name='more'></a><br />
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</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>T</b>he IMF has alerted that Asian growth has slowed significantly, particularly during the second half of 2011, due to reduced demand from the developed world. The Bank of Thailand has slashed its growth forecast for this year to 2.6% from a previiously estimated 4.1%. And most of these economies - including Japan's - will continue to be affected during 2012 by Euro troubles and debt-reduction concerns in the United States. America is set to grow by only 1.5% this year. </span><span style="font-size: small;">Southern Africa, which had been a bright spot, has had to reduce its growth forecast for 2012 to 5.75%. </span><span style="font-size: small;">The overall effect has been to reduce global growth to only 4%, down from 5% last year. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Malaysia looks fairly robust, with analysts predicting 2012 growth to be 5-6% despite successful fiscal deficit reduction measures. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">By contrast, the typically strong economic powerhouse of Singapore predicts its growth to moderate to between 1% and 3% in 2012, reports </span><i style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">eTaiwan News.</i></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The big regional engines of growth, China, India and Indonesia will all slow next year. And while they achieve reaonably high levels by comparison to rates in developed nations, they are entering a more challenging period. There are encouraging signs in specific sectors, for example Indonesian footwear exports are set to expand modestly in 2012. Although, by and large the picture appears grim.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">While Europe and America consumed, the East grew. It was always going to be the case that when the developed West attempted to contain the expansion of its debt mountain and even tried to reduce it, Asia would suffer. Domestic markets in the big Asian economies are not yet large enough to take up the slack, growth until now having been driven by exports. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">And with major concerns about an impending Chinese property bubble about to burst, with dire knock-on effects on Chinese savings and investment, the immediate future of stock exchanges in such cities as Shanghai looks precarious. Nomura, a Japanese investment bank, has predicted that Chinese growth will slow to under 8% during the final quarter of 2011 and into the first period of 2012, reports <i><span id="Zoom">Xinhua</span></i>.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Economist <span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-name">Kaushik Basu</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">, writing for the <i>BBC</i>, notes "the Indian economy is going through a difficult patch. Industrial growth has slowed over the past half-year and inflation has remained high." However, Basu reports more encouragingly "Even after the slowdown, India is growing at more than 7.5%. Further, what often goes unremarked is that, since 2003, India has been saving and investing well over 30% of its national income."</span></div><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Many of these countries' treasuries have indeed stored huge wealth, but much of that must have exposure to dodgy Western sovereign and corporate debt. "UK 10-year government bond yields fell below corresponding German yields on Thursday, reflecting investors’ concerns that Germany is exhibiting signs of contagion from the European debt crisis" noted <i>Financial Post</i>. It looks as though the UK is beginning to be viewed as a haven in that time-zone. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Having said that, India's renouned fascination for gold will undoubtedly stand it in good stead as the precious metal nudges US$1,700 per oz.</span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Beyond the next six months it's difficult for punters to predict the adverse effects of all this on the economies of Asia. And what measures might be available to regional governments to off-set market turmoil and reduced global confidence. But what's certain is that it's vital that Latin America, Africa and, in particular, Asia persist in developing their economies, otherwise the world stares a protracted period of severe contraction in the face.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Check out all articles <a href="http://globaldialog1.blogspot.com/2011/04/global-dialog-index.html">here. </a></b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0