World: speeding up or slowing down?

Growth prospects for 2012.

Market turmoil has confused and scared investor sentiment.  Four European countries have banned short-selling of financial shares which shored up confidence resulting in gains on stock markets yesterday.  

What are the prospects next year for the majority of us?  Here are the forecasters' findings from a recent issue of The Economist, the World Bank Global Economic Prospects, and EconomyWatch, a Singapore-based online economics community.  The bracketed figure after each country's name refers to its rank in the IMF's 2010 list as measured by total GDP.


F o r e c a s t e r s '   P r e d i c t i o n s   f o r   2 0 1 2 :


On the Up and Up

Angola (61) speeding up 1.4 to + 8.1%

Australia (13) speeding up 1.6 to + 3.9%

Bangladesh (57) speeding up 0.2 to + 6.4%

Brazil (7) speeding up 0.1 to + 4.1%  

Britain (6) speeding up 0.6 to + 1.9% 

Czech Republic (45) speeding up 0.9 to + 2.9%

Denmark (31) speeding up 0.3 to + 1.8% 

Egypt (40) speeding up 2.7 to + 3.9%
Greece (32) languishing in recession but improving to - 1.2% (in 2011 Greece is forecast to shrink 4.5%)

Hungary (56) speeding up 0.3 to + 3.1%

India (10) speeding up 0.8 to + 8.6%

Indonesia (18) speeding up 0.1 to + 6.2%

Iran (26) moving from stationary to growing 3.0 to + 3.0%
Ireland (43) speeding up 1.4 to + 1.9%

Italy (8) speeding up 0.2 to + 1.0% 
Japan (3) speeding up 2.2 to + 2.8%

Malaysia (37) speeding up 0.4 to + 5.5%
Morocco (59) speeding up 0.7 to + 4.6%
New Zealand (51) speeding up 3.2 to 4.1% ** 

Nigeria (41) speeding up 0.4 to + 7.5%

Norway (25) speeding up 0.6 to + 1.9%

Pakistan (47) speeding up 1.3 to + 3.7%
Portugal (38) languishing in recession but improving to - 0.5% (in 2011 Portugal is forecast to shrink 1.5%)

Romania (48) speeding up 2.1 to + 3.7%

Russia (11) speeding up 0.3 to + 4.6%
Slovakia (60) speeding up 0.4 to + 4.2%

South Africa (29) speeding up 1.1 to + 4.8%

Taiwan (24) speeding up 0.1 to + 4.5%

Thailand (30) speeding up 0.3 to + 4.8%
Ukraine (53) speeding up 0.4 to + 4.9%
United Arab Emirates (33) speeding up 0.5 to + 3.8%

United States of America (1) speeding up 0.6 to + 2.9% *
Vietnam (58) speeding up 0.5 to + 6.8%

Venezuela (34) speeding up 0.9 to + 3.7%

Repeat Performance

Columbia (35) still growing by 5.0%  

Denmark (31) still growing by 2%
Philippines (46) still growing by 5.0%

Poland (20) still growing by 4.2%

Cooling Down

Algeria (49) slowing down 0.1 to + 3.6%  

Argentina (28) slowing down 1.8 to + 5.1%  

Austria (27) slowing down 0.8 to + 1.9%

Belgium (21) slowing down 0.5 to + 1.9%

Canada (9) slowing down 0.2 to + 2.7%

Chile (44) slowing down 1.2 to + 5.0% 
China (2) slowing down 0.3 to + 8.7% 
Eurozone ( - ) slowing down 0.3 to + 1.6%
Finland (36) slowing down 0.6 to + 2.5%

France (5) slowing down 0.3 to + 1.7%

Germany (4) slowing down 1.2 to + 2.1% 
Ghana (100) slowing down 6.4 to 7.3%  
Hong Kong (not listed but between 38 and 39) slowing down 0.3 to + 4.8%

Israel (42) slowing down 1.1 to + 4.0%
Kazazhstan (52) slowing down 0.3 to + 5.6%
Kuwait (54) slowing down 0.2 to + 5.1%

Mexico (14) slowing down 0.8 to + 3.4% 

Netherlands (16) slowing down 0.4 to + 1.8%  

Saudi Arabia (23) slowing down 1.0 to + 5.3%

Singapore (39) slowing down 0.1 to + 4.9%

South Korea (15) slowing down 0.2 to + 4.0%

Spain (12) slowing down 0.5 to + 1.2%

Sweden (22) slowing down 1.7 to + 2.7%

Switzerland (19) slowing down 0.1 to + 2.1%

Turkey (17) slowing down 1.5 to + 4.5%

Notes

*      It's unlikely these figures from The Economist yet factor in the effect on US performance of the recent downgrade by Standard and Poor's of America's credit rating to AA+
**    Economy Watch predicts NZ to grow by 0.9% in 2011; ANZ by 1.3% in the current year.  Westpac thought earlier this year that NZ would grow 6% during the year to June 2012.  Clearly, the Christchurch rebuild will boost growth. 


Comments

At this stage only Greece and Portugal are predicted to be in recession next year.

Healthiest economies appear to be emerging or newly industrialised ones.  According to the BBC, World Bank President Robert Zoellickhas said that "developing countries were now the source of growth and opportunity."

India is predicted to almost catch up China as the South Asian tiger races ahead just as the Chinese economy cools a bit.

South Africa is set to grow faster than Russia.  

Turkey looks likely to develop it's economy faster next year than Brazil. 

Britain's economy should perform more effectively than the Euro bloc.

Germany is likely to cool considerably.  This may negatively impact neighbouring Poland and The Netherlands, which rely disproportionately on trade with the Federal Republic. 

Ghana is red hot right now with an anticipitated growth in 2011 of 13.7%, but set to cool considerably in 2012 to a still highly respectable 7.3%.

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